Consultants presented modeling estimating sustainable yield at 235,000 AFY, about 32,000 AFY lower than the GWMP figure of 267,000. Seven projects were described as providing about 64,000 AFY combined average yield at full buildout, with questions raised about AAA Ranch assumptions. Commenters flagged $237–$268M in estimated mitigation costs and urged agencies to brief their boards on potential financial impacts.
Technical consultants presented analysis showing that historical groundwater pumping in the Modesto Subbasin causes approximately 60,000 acre-feet per year of stream depletions and recommended continuing to use existing groundwater level thresholds (~57 feet) as protective; no board action was taken. The county reported its Board of Supervisors approved a Geosyntec contract to develop the NDE action plan and accounting platform, with launch planned for February 2027.
Land subsidence was found to be minimal based on InSAR data; Todd Groundwater reported DWR said no changes to subsidence criteria are needed until a 2032 reevaluation. Analysis concluded that temporarily lowering groundwater levels to interim milestones is unlikely to significantly affect groundwater dependent ecosystems near the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers. The county reported it is finalizing a third-party contract for the Non-District East action plan, targeting July 14 board approval.
Spring 2026 groundwater monitoring shows 13 Eastern Principal Aquifer wells (33%) below minimum thresholds, matching fall 2025 levels. Stanislaus County aims to start a consultant by June 29 to develop the Non-District East action plan, due November 1, 2026. OID's Paulsell Lateral Expansion Phase 1 is in final stages of completion, expanding canal capacity from 30 cfs toward 180 cfs and expected to improve delivery and groundwater recharge.
Fall 2025 data showed 35% of Eastern Principal Aquifer wells and 38% of Stanislaus River ISW wells below MTs. Stanislaus County issued an RFP this week for a third-party review to inform the Non-District East Action Plan due to the GSA Nov. 1, 2026. GWMP targets about 16,000 AF average annual reductions over the first 5 years starting Jan. 31, 2027.
