1. Sustainable Yield Estimated at 235,000 Acre-Feet — A 32,000 AF Reduction from the Prior Estimate Woodard & Curran presented updated sustainable yield modeling estimating that the Modesto Sub-Basin can safely pump 235,000 acre-feet per year without triggering undesirable results — down from the 267,000 AF figure in the GWMP and prior sustainable yield estimate. The decline is driven by continued overdraft over the past five years, roughly 25,000–30,000 acres of new agricultural land (mostly in non-district east), and improved irrigation efficiency that reduces deep percolation/recharge. This translates to approximately a 16% reduction in overall agricultural ET of applied water and means the basin must reduce pumping by about 79,000 AF/year compared to projected future conditions. No immediate changes to the GWMP allocations are planned, but refinements will be considered in 2030.
Already have an account? Sign In
