Staff briefed State Board members on subsidence management and water reductions but received no clear signal on probation exclusion, though they expect to be back before the Board soon. A new daily ET tool is planned for March via a separate portal with data back to October, and a pilot with six growers comparing metered use to ET beginning around March will inform future allocation decisions.
The Board approved a 2026 groundwater allocation of 1.78 af/ac, cutting transitional (renamed as penalty) water from 0.75 to 0.37 af/ac while signaling it is likely the last year for that tier. A 2026 pilot will compare ET-based and extraction-based accounting, with monthly updates and recommendations targeted by late 2026. Directors discussed ASR feasibility costs and water constraints but took no formal action to proceed or to reject an ASR pilot.
Consultants recommended an allocation of 1.2 acre-feet per acre to meet subsidence targets, potentially forcing ~20,000–25,000 acres out of production GSA-wide. Significant discrepancies between satellite-based ET estimates and metered pumping raised accuracy concerns; staff suggested not implementing a new pumped-water accounting policy until 2027 while refining methods. The agency is still awaiting a State Water Board decision on its exclusion request.
Staff recommended reducing groundwater allocation to 1.2 acre-feet per acre for 2026 due to unsustainable current pumping rates that are causing violations of minimum thresholds. Technical analysis revealed water levels are critically close to permanent subsidence triggers, with only 4-10 feet of buffer remaining across the service area. A new gross water accounting system was proposed to better track actual groundwater extraction, replacing the current net consumptive use method.
Groundwater levels improved by 5 feet from last year, reaching depths similar to pre-drought conditions in 2014, thanks to 3 consecutive wet years. The district is shifting from targeted subsidence restrictions to basin-wide allocation reductions after modeling showed that localized pumping limits simply move problems to adjacent areas. Final 2026 water allocations will be decided by December or January after evaluating scenarios including reductions to transitional water allowances.
