1. Super El Niño conditions could bring intense winter storms. Staff said a Super El Niño is underway and forecast that its strength could rank among the highest since the 1950s. Models indicated a greater than 90% chance that Northern and Central California would have at least one month with more than 150% of average precipitation during the rainy season, and a 60–80% chance of a month exceeding 200% of average. Staff used water year 2023—when January brought 10.7 inches of local rain and March brought 7 inches—to illustrate how concentrated storms and intervening dry periods can complicate water-supply operations.
2. The 2027 State Water Project allocation could be higher, but has not been set. Staff described a historical relationship between Northern Sierra precipitation and State Water Project Table A allocations: above-average precipitation has often coincided with allocations exceeding 60%. The 2026 allocation was 45%, or 18,900 acre-feet. Staff expects a higher-than-average 2027 allocation if the wet outlook holds and is exploring water transfer opportunities in case a high allocation creates surplus water.
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