1. Under the already-adopted Groundwater Use Management Program, Non-District East (NDE) is scheduled to phase in a 16,000-acre-foot-per-year groundwater-pumping reduction during 2027–2030. Stanislaus County’s third-party reviewer supported beginning demand reduction and found no fatal flaw in the modeling. He questioned whether later targets, discussed as reaching roughly 65%, could be too high, but did not establish a replacement figure. He identified uncertainties involving service-island pumping and riparian and appropriative diversions. His independent baseline estimate was about 77,700 acre-feet per year of pumping, compared with approximately 89,700 in the program’s model; he emphasized that both are approximations. He also recommended further examination of cross-boundary flows, whose implications for NDE were not quantified. Monitoring data would help guide later decisions.
2. The draft amended Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) estimates sustainable yield at 235,000 acre-feet per year, down from the former 267,000-acre-feet-per-year estimate. Presenters cited expanded permanent crops, less deep percolation as irrigation becomes more efficient, and lower groundwater levels. The draft estimates a current groundwater-storage decline of about 63,000 acre-feet per year for 2021–2025; presenters cautioned that a smaller projected decline shifts part of the deficit to the rivers rather than solving it. Groundwater Use Management Program allocations remain based on the former sustainable-yield estimate for now; they may be revisited as conditions warrant, including around 2030. The GSA approved no allocation change at this meeting. Member agencies plan to consider the amended GSP in December and January; the GSA plans to consider adoption on January 20, 2027, ahead of the January 31 state-submission deadline.
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