March 2026 recorded zero precipitation — the first time in 104 years that March had zero precipitation on the 5-station index chart referenced in the report. Combined with extreme heat, roughly one-third of the expected April–July snowmelt runoff already occurred in March, when FID's diversion capacity is limited. Southern Sierra snowpack sits at just 25% of the April 1 average, and statewide northern California is at only 5%. Pine Flat storage is around 101,000 acre feet with limited spill risk, but FID's projected entitlements are trending well below normal. Staff is modeling a 65% April–July runoff scenario and expects very small late-summer entitlements, meaning the river could effectively "dry up" earlier than usual.
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