The updated Seawater Intrusion Model (SWIM v3) shows that even eliminating all agricultural pumping across the entire valley fails to meet the seawater intrusion minimum thresholds by 2040. Five different scenarios were tested — from cutting ag pumping only in the 180/400 and Monterey subbasins to shutting it off valley-wide — and none achieved the required rollback of the saltwater front. Staff discussed a likely approach of starting with projects and then adding targeted demand management where projects don't reach; Brett said they may build one suite including BGRP and another suite without BGRP for comparison.
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