1. Very Strong El Niño Expected — Higher Odds of a Wetter Winter The National Weather Service presented data showing the current El Niño is on track to become one of the strongest on record, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the El Niño 3.4 region potentially reaching ~3.5°C — which would crush all historical records. Seasonal outlooks show increasing probability of above-normal precipitation for the Bay Area from December through April, with the wettest conditions likely backloaded into January–February. While there is no direct guaranteed correlation between El Niño and flooding in Santa Clara County (the 2015 very strong El Niño coincided with drought), Valley Water is treating this as a major preparedness event.
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